'There’s even confusion around what precisely Hezbollah's position is, what precisely they agreed to, and what they didn't agree to.' We bre
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.2050 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.6625 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | international |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 107.9h |
L |
NO · 70% |
Q |
NO · 60% |
S |
NEUTRAL · 0% |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
| RESULT | [ WRONG ] |
| KIND | counterfactual_24h |
| HORIZON | 24.0h |
| PRICE AT CHECK | 0.2350 |
| COUNTERFACTUAL P&L | $-0.75 |
| RESOLVED AT | 2026-06-03T12:35:28Z |
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8881 ]