[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8875 ]

2026-06-02T11:11:21Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Aipac affiliate has funded lavish trips to Israel for dozens of Congress members since 7 October, filings reveal

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2250
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6650
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE108.9h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=10

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8875 ]