[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8847 ]

2026-06-01T22:27:00Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 77% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

NEW: Trump reportedly "lashed out" at Netanyahu in heated call earlier today over Israeli aggression in Lebanon.

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0850
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7660
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE313.9h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 72%
S NO · 100% · n=22

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8847 ]