[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8843 ]

2026-06-01T21:13:51Z · 方法论: /methodology

NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ CORRECT ]

News trigger

Chinese aircraft carrier held drills in east of Philippines, Japan says http:// reut.rs/4dYL93O

Market

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.0595`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.6400`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`international`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`26.9h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 60%
`Q`	NO · 55%
`S`	NO · 88% · n=16

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ CORRECT ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.0210`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`+$0.82`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-06-02T21:13:51Z`

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8843 ]