[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8843 ]

2026-06-01T21:13:51Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Chinese aircraft carrier held drills in east of Philippines, Japan says http:// reut.rs/4dYL93O

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0595
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6400
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE26.9h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 88% · n=16

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8843 ]