[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8833 ]

2026-06-01T15:57:05Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 50% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

US oil refiners are running their plants harder than usual, with some even putting off maintenance, as strong profits and steady demand for

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Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0375
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5000
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE320.4h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=9

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8833 ]