The boss of one of the few oil tanker fleets that continued to cross the Strait of Hormuz throughout the Iran war said the conflict has been
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.0435 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.6650 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | international |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 32.9h |
L |
NO · 60% |
Q |
NO · 55% |
S |
NO · 100% · n=37 |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8832 ]