[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8831 ]

2026-06-01T15:28:16Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Bowen: Trump needs this war to end but Iran is not backing down

bbc · ↗ original article

Market

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0435
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7850
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE32.9h

Jury split

L NO · 72%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=35

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8831 ]