[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8829 ]

2026-06-01T15:05:54Z · 방법론: /methodology

NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ CORRECT ]

News trigger

Lebanon latest: Israel captures more land in the south

Market

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.0445`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.7250`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`international`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`33.4h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 60%
`Q`	NO · 75%
`S`	NO · 100% · n=11

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ CORRECT ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.0305`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`+$0.29`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-06-02T15:05:54Z`

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8829 ]