[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8815 ]

2026-06-01T06:01:26Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 84% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

U.S. bombs Iranian military sites and Kuwait is hit by drone and missile fire

npr · ↗ original article

Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0550
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.8350
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE330.4h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 95%
S NO · 100% · n=13

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8815 ]