[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8793 ]

2026-05-31T19:00:14Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump shows off plans for drone port on top of White House ballroom https:// trib.al/XJxgSE9

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1050
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6428
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE149.4h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 89% · n=18

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8793 ]