[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8790 ]

2026-05-31T15:19:01Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 58% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

U.S. strike on alleged drug boat kills 3 in Pacific Ocean, in fourth attack this week

npr · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1150
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5813
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE152.9h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8790 ]