[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8783 ]

2026-05-31T08:04:14Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 38% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Middle East crisis live: Israeli army captures strategic castle in Lebanon in deepest incursion into country in 26 years

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2350
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.3750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYus_politics
HOURS TO CLOSE40.0h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8783 ]