US says it disabled another commercial ship trying to breach blockade and reach Iran
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.1250 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.7750 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | international |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 174.5h |
L |
NO · 70% |
Q |
NO · 75% |
S |
NO · 100% · n=32 |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
| RESULT | [ CORRECT ] |
| KIND | auto_settle_extreme |
| HORIZON | — |
| PRICE AT CHECK | 1.0000 |
| COUNTERFACTUAL P&L | +$3.30 |
| RESOLVED AT | 2026-06-07T00:30:00Z |
—
[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8754 ]