[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8751 ]

2026-05-30T16:55:32Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 55% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

“Today I’m not proud to be an Israeli,” confesses Jonathan. The former IDF soldier tells 1843 that he is “ashamed” of his platoon’s actions

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0065
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5500
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE31.4h

Jury split

L NO · 55%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8751 ]