[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8701 ]

2026-05-30T09:26:55Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Pete Hegseth says US is ready to restart strikes on Iran if no deal is reached https:// trib.al/ZCxJf1F

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.3500
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE183.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=11

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8701 ]