America claims to have sunk at least 160 Iranian naval vessels in the course of the war. Each of these is a potential source of pollution. A
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.0065 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.7250 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | international |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 39.4h |
L |
NO · 60% |
Q |
NO · 75% |
S |
NO · 100% · n=17 |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8695 ]