[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8691 ]

2026-05-30T08:11:12Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Qatar opposes permanent legal fees for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but a temporary toll is negotiable and could help restore norma

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.4050
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6438
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE184.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8691 ]