[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8689 ]

2026-05-30T07:40:12Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Iran war: What is happening on day 92 as Trump weighs Iran deal

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0045
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7160
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE40.4h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 72%
S NO · 100% · n=28

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8689 ]