[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8674 ]

2026-05-29T22:21:57Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 38% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

SpaceX awarded $6.45B in Space Force contracts ahead of IPO

techcrunch · ↗ original article

Market

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.9990
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.3750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE32.0h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8674 ]