[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8643 ]

2026-05-29T18:58:55Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 58% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Citadel Securities posts record $4.3bn in trading revenues on Iran volatility

ft · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.3600
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5813
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE29.5h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8643 ]