[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8640 ]

2026-05-29T18:43:17Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
YES · 44% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Los Angeles mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt is opening up on his campaign and what he sees as the major issues afflicting Angelenos ahead of

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1950
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.4375
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYus_politics
HOURS TO CLOSE77.5h

Jury split

L YES · 70%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8640 ]