[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8590 ]

2026-05-29T15:55:50Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
YES · 80% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The US government bond market headed for its best week since the start of the US war on Iran as oil prices declined in anticipation of an ag

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2015
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.8050
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE32.5h

Jury split

L YES · 70%
Q YES · 85%
S YES · 100% · n=1

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8590 ]