[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8589 ]

2026-05-29T15:55:41Z · Methodology: /methodology

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YES · 55% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The US government bond market headed for its best week since the start of the US war on Iran as oil prices declined in anticipation of an ag

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0095
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5500
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE32.5h

Jury split

L YES · 70%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S YES · 100% · n=1

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8589 ]