The European Central Bank should avoid waiting too long to address the fallout from the Iran war, according to Governing Council member Dimi
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.1950 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.6650 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | trump_direct |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 34.5h |
L |
NO · 60% |
Q |
NO · 55% |
S |
NO · 100% · n=10 |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8572 ]