[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8571 ]

2026-05-29T13:43:05Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The European Central Bank should avoid waiting too long to address the fallout from the Iran war, according to Governing Council member Dimi

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Market

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0075
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6650
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE58.4h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=26

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8571 ]