[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8542 ]

2026-05-29T11:27:29Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 69% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The aluminum market is facing a deepening shortage as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz throttles supply, with spot prices for the metal s

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2000
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6937
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE37.0h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 85%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8542 ]