[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8499 ]

2026-05-29T07:24:35Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The US and Iran are understood to have reached a preliminary deal to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and discuss the future of Tehran’s nuclea

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1850
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE41.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=11

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8499 ]