[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8362 ]

2026-05-28T17:54:47Z · Methodology: /methodology

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YES · 77% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

JUST IN: American and Iranian negotiators believe they have arrived at a draft agreement to formally extend the ceasefire and gradually open

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2650
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7687
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE54.5h

Jury split

L YES · 72%
Q YES · 85%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8362 ]