[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8346 ]

2026-05-28T16:45:09Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

A bewildering week brought both frenzied negotiations and renewed American strikes. Register for free to discover why, even if the two count

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Market

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0645
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6438
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE55.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8346 ]