[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8328 ]

2026-05-28T15:24:22Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 50% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The oil shock is only Kevin Warsh’s first constraint as Fed chair. Three barriers stand in the way of his—and Donald Trump’s—rate-cutting am

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Market

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0015
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5000
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE57.0h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=11

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8328 ]