[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8309 ]

2026-05-28T13:37:09Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 58% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Israel hits Lebanese capital in 'targeted strike'

bbc · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1200
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5813
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE58.5h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8309 ]