[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8292 ]

2026-05-28T12:24:42Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 76% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

U.S. forces shot down four Iranian one-way attack drones that posed a threat to vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, according to two U.S. offic

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1100
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7562
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE60.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 85%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8292 ]