[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8230 ]

2026-05-28T08:54:52Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 47% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Israel kills senior Hamas moneyman who funneled millions to terror group's military wing https:// trib.al/V65Axsq

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0700
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.4733
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE63.5h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 87% · n=15

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8230 ]