[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8174 ]

2026-05-28T01:47:10Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 69% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

US justice department reportedly opens criminal inquiry into Trump accuser E Jean Carroll

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Trump out as President by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0015
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6937
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE70.5h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 85%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8174 ]