[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-8010 ]

2026-05-27T07:02:03Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 76% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Middle East crisis live: Lebanon hit by one of the heaviest days of Israeli bombing in weeks

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.3100
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7562
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE89.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 85%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-8010 ]