[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7981 ]

2026-05-27T01:33:14Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 44% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

‘Scum’: Trump attacks US states’ efforts to regulate prediction markets

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0015
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.4375
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE100.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7981 ]