[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7968 ]

2026-05-27T01:02:05Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Iran war live: Israel kills 31 in Lebanon; Tehran blasts US truce violation

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2800
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7250
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE98.0h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=11

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7968 ]