[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7872 ]

2026-05-26T13:36:26Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 80% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Prospects fade for imminent end to Iran war as attacks restart

npr · ↗ original article

Market

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0405
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.8050
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE106.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 85%
S NO · 100% · n=12

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7872 ]