[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7838 ]

2026-05-26T11:52:22Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

US launches new Iran strikes amid peace negotiations, Indiana cracks down on migrant truck drivers https:// trib.al/9PTv2mI

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.3250
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7188
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE108.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7838 ]