[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7746 ]

2026-05-26T07:24:29Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The ECB should raise interest rates in June, even if ongoing peace talks with Iran yield a deal, as the conflict has been far longer than pr

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.3000
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6650
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE113.0h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=10

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7746 ]