[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7605 ]

2026-05-25T13:54:34Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump demands Arab countries join Abraham Accords if they want to be part of Iran deal that 'is proceeding nicely' https:// trib.al/TIvcpGY

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.3350
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE130.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=10

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7605 ]