[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7576 ]

2026-05-25T12:49:36Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Iran says conclusions reached on many topics in potential U.S. memorandum but no deal imminent http:// reut.rs/4tSuzIY

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.3150
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE131.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=10

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7576 ]