[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7573 ]

2026-05-25T12:40:05Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 80% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump says U.S. and Iran nearing a peace deal. And, Pope Leo weighs in on AI's rise

npr · ↗ original article

Market

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0025
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.8050
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE131.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 85%
S NO · 100% · n=28

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7573 ]