[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7520 ]

2026-05-25T09:33:40Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 20% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

NEW: An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that the U.S. and Iran have "reached a conclusion on a large part of the issues under dis

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0015
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.2000
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE140.5h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=26

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7520 ]