[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7441 ]

2026-05-25T05:51:21Z · 방법론: /methodology

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YES · 73% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Oil prices slide on hopes of US-Iran peace deal

bbc · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2650
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7312
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE138.5h

Jury split

L YES · 72%
Q YES · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7441 ]