[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7363 ]

2026-05-24T18:46:11Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Republican hardliners warn Trump is giving up too much in Iran talks

ft · ↗ original article

Market

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1915
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7760
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE149.5h

Jury split

L NO · 72%
Q NO · 72%
S NO · 100% · n=26

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7363 ]