[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7342 ]

2026-05-24T17:17:02Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 71% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

When asked about emerging details of a possible peace deal with Iran, Sen. Chris Van Hollen said, “When you’re digging a hole, you should st

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Market

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0430
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7075
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE151.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 72%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7342 ]