[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7293 ]

2026-05-24T15:26:11Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 77% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump says US will not ‘rush into a deal’ with Iran as talks continue

ft · ↗ original article

Market

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0155
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7660
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE153.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 72%
S NO · 100% · n=31

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7293 ]