[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7257 ]

2026-05-24T14:25:50Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

TRUMP ON IRAN DEAL: President Trump blasted the Obama-era Iran Nuclear Deal as “one of the worst deals ever made,” saying it created a “dire

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0700
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE154.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=12

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7257 ]